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Issayas' Strategy of Internal Dictatorship and External Destabilization.
Identifying the Dictator’s Strategy
The Eritrean dictator has reverted to the strategy of the people’s war - that was relevant during the national liberation struggle but is outright incongruent to an already independent state. It is this incongruity that testifies that Eritrea is a failed state - in the sense that it has no normal state institutions that order society. The international community is not cognizant of this dangerous fact: the sooner the UN and the global state system is aware of this situation, the greater the possibility of denying the Eritrean dictator international legitimacy. The recognition that Eritrea is a failed state on the verge of ‘Somalisation’, has mobilized the Eritrean opposition forces to organize themselves in a new way.
Three months ago, thirteen opposition forces upgraded the Eritrean National Alliance to function as a united organization. This step when supplemented by active regional and international solidarity with the Eritrean National Alliance is certain to bring about the peaceful demise of the dictator, establish democracy in Eritrea, and usher peace in the region of the Horn of Africa.
The dictator plays the international game as a cover up for his real intentions: the real aim of the dictator is to legitimize the failed state by transforming the whole of Eritrea into a base area of the era of national liberation wars. The military command structure of the Eritrean army has been replaced by the institutions of a people's war: for this purpose, the ministry of defense has been rendered defunct. The military and security establishments have been replaced by four armies - organized along the lines of warlord armies, spread out to cover the entire geographical area of Eritrea. The Central Army covers the capital and its environs; the Southern Army covers the Eritrean/Ethiopian border; the Third army covers the Eritrean/Sudanese border; and the Fourth Army covers The Red Sea Afar Region.
This strategy, in addition to camouflaging the fact that the Eritrean state has collapsed, is intended to impose a total dictatorship in Eritrea, and initiate an undeclared state of war against our immediate neighbors. Looked at from the point of view of the neighboring countries, the dictator intends to keep a permanent state of tension directed at their strategies of development. The possibility of war with the Sudan must be taken seriously. The implications of this strategy to the opposition forces and our neighbours are serious:
• From the economic point of view, the dictator hopes to avoid the responsibilities of an organized economy by enhancing a total economic dependence of the people on him.
• From the political point of view, the people have become hostages of the system more than ever. Half of the Eritrean government have been thrown into jail for advocating political pluralism; there is no democratically elected parliament; and the independent newspapers have been closed while their editors vegetate in prison.
• From the ideological point of view, the dictator attempts to present the picture of Eritrea under siege 'by a conspiracy of Eritrean mercenaries and their neighboring masters'. That is why it is important for the African Union to accord legitimacy to the Eritrean opposition forces.
• From the military and security point of view, the dictator has been able to keep a vast army on a war footing at low cost. Out of the ten years of nominal independent statehood, six of them have been wasted on wars of aggression against the Yemen, Ethiopia, and the Sudan.
What is Our Strategic Response?
The strategy of the opposition forces cannot be based on the principles of a people’s war for several reasons. One such central reason is the fact that the dictator holds the people hostage at the political, military, economic, and ideological levels. Another central reason lies in the fact that the strategy of people’s war, conducted by opposition forces that have not yet attained international recognition, is likely to fail.
The realization of the fact that the dictatorship occupies the military space at the numerical, organizational, combat experience, mobility, and economic levels, makes it incumbent upon us to evolve a strategy based on the perspective of the struggle of reclaiming our people from the psychological grip of the dictator. This perspective envisages four major tasks:
1. The task of working out a program of political education. The aim of this task is to reclaim the political consciousness of the Eritrean people - who have been transformed into political infants by a cult-worship of the dictator’s personality.
2. The task of organizing a wide coalition composed of the opposition forces - via a national conference that includes all the political organizations, parties, civil societies, independent national personalities, and independent intellectuals.
3. The task of establishing camps aimed at providing refuge to the forces that desert the dictator's army and ensuring their re-education based on the principles of the National Charter. Out of these training camps shall emerge the military organization that shall function as the army of democratic Eritrea.
4. The task of organizing a well-coordinated diplomatic thrust aimed at exposing the illegitimate Eritrean regime and obtaining legitimacy for the opposition forces.
The Political Re-education Program
This program shall be organized around a strong TV/Radio station. The spoken word, communicated in the major languages of Eritrea, and supplemented by written communication, organized to meet the different intellectual needs of Eritreans, shall be directed at raising the political consciousness of the people. The re-education program also aims at mobilizing the people so that they may participate in the struggle against the dictatorship in the form of Adi based social movement. An equally important aim of the re-education program is the inculcation of national responsibility in the collective mind of the armed forces.
The Program of Organizing the National Conference
The Alliance has already formed a Dialogue Committee for the projected National Conference - composed of three members of the Secretariat. This first step needs to be complemented by further support activity. A website shall be established for the sole purpose of opening a national debate on the National Charter and the National Conference. For this purpose, a committee composed of respected members of the civil society organizations, independent national personalities, scholars, and members of the Alliance may need to be established. Such a Support Committee may be able to guide both the proposed websites and the campaign for the success of the National Conference. In addition to support committees, 'national conference' committees may need to be established within every political organization, parties, websites, civil societies, and Alliance communities. It is hoped that these support and national conference committees may be able to conduct an international campaign within their organizations, among supportive countries, and NGOs in the name of the projected National Conference.
The Program of the Diplomatic Thrust
The main political documents of the Fifth Conference of the Alliance shall constitute the core literature regarding our diplomatic campaign for legitimacy. We shall cordially request the representatives of our neighboring countries to present the Alliance to the diplomatic community of their capitals. The first targets of the Alliance are the AU and the Arab League, respectively. The second aim of the diplomatic program is to establish linkages with the EU and the US.
The Military program
In accordance with our strategy of confronting the headquarters of the enemy, our central aim is to destroy the four major military headquarters mentioned above and not to engage him in large military confrontations. The Special Forces that need to be trained for these tasks cannot be isolated from the essential building blocks of the military capabilities of the Alliance. The brigades must be trained to function into mobile units when required, and to assemble into large formations capable of meeting the enemy in large-scale combat when necessary. The areas that are freed by weakening the organization and resolve of the enemy are essential steps towards the strategy of knocking out the military headquarters of the dictatorship completely.
The implementation of this strategy needs to be based upon the unity and solidarity of the Alliance and the success of the projected National Conference. The implementation of our strategy needs to start now. Whether the members of the Alliance accept to integrate the armed groups into a united Alliance army or not, the establishment of military camps is essential so that the armed sectors that desert the dictator’s camp shall be re-trained politically and militarily as part of the strategy of a building a united army under the Alliance.
Organization
Under the Secretariat, and the secretary of the military and security affairs, shall establish the military command organized in the following sectors:
• The operations department • The military and intelligence Department • The department of political mobilization • The department of organizational security and civil intelligence
Military Camps
Badume: the Badume area is suited for the training of member military groups of the Alliance into the first brigade.
Riwasa: in Riwasa that occupies a central position since between the Sudan and Ethiopia, the same training may be provided to form the second brigade. The military programme in Riwasa must start now.
The Sudan: the aim of the training programme in the Sudan is to train old and new refugees as well as old and new fighters.
All the training camps must be equipped to train the Special Forces mentioned above.
Herui T. Bairu
General Secretary
The Eritrean National Alliance
Addis Abeba/12-10-02
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See also recent articles and Seminars by Veteran Dr. Herui Tedla Bairu
ካልኦት ብ'ብገዲም ተጋዳላይ ዶ/ር ሕሩይ ተድላ ባይሩ ዝተጻሕፉ ጽሑፋት ሰሚናራትን ኣብ ታሕቲ ተወከሱ :-
International Conference for Democracy in Eritrea, 15-18 December 2000, Stockholm.
ዋዕላ ንደሞክራስያ ኣብ ኤርትራ፡ ክፉት ዓለምለኻዊ ዋዕላ ስቶክሆልም፡ ንደሞክራስያ ኣብ ኤርትራ (15-18 ታሕሳስ 2000)።
Permission to publish this documentary video on www.snitna.com has been obtained from Dr. Herui Tedla Bairu.
እዚ ቪድዮ`ዚ፡ ብፍቓድ ዶ/ር ሕሩይ ተድላ ባይሩ፡ ብመንገዲ www.snitna.com ዝቐርበልኩም ዘሎ ሰነድ ኢዩ።
International Conference for Democracy in Eritrea, 15-18 December 2000, Stockholm.
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Permission to publish this documentary video on www.snitna.com has been obtained from Dr. Herui Tedla Bairu.
እዚ ቪድዮ`ዚ፡ ብፍቓድ ዶ/ር ሕሩይ ተድላ ባይሩ፡ ብመንገዲ www.snitna.com ዝቐርበልኩም ዘሎ ሰነድ ኢዩ።
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