Unmasking the Expansionist Agenda Behind Ethiopia’s Quest for the Red Sea

10/12/2025 23:27 PM

THE FALLACY OF “EQUILIBRIUM”:
Unmasking the Expansionist Agenda Behind Ethiopia’s Quest for the Red Sea

Rebuttal to the article “The Red Sea Arena: Imperative for a New Regional Equilibrium” by General Tsadkan Gebretensae

By Dr. Gebre Gebremariam

The Fallacy of “Equilibrium”: Unmasking the Expansionist Agenda Behind Ethiopia’s Quest for the Red Sea.
Rebuttal to the article “The Red Sea Arena: Imperative for a New Regional Equilibrium” by General Tsadkan Gebretensae.
Dr. Gebre Gebremariam

The Context: The article “The Red Sea Arena: Imperative for a New Regional Equilibrium,” attributed to General Tsadkan Gebretensae, presents itself as a strategic analysis of regional stability (Gebretensae 2025). The Fallacy of Equilibrium: Unmasking the Expansionist Agenda Behind Ethiopia’s Quest for the Red Sea However, a critical dissection through the analytical lens of Dr. Gebre Gebremariam reveals it to be little more than a sophisticated veneer for irredentism and a violation of international law. Under the guise of “economic necessity” and “regional equilibrium,” the article advances a dangerous narrative that seeks to delegitimize Eritrean sovereignty and justify Ethiopian expansionism. By projecting Ethiopia’s internal fragility onto its neighbor and weaponizing demographic statistics to erode established borders, Gen. Tsadkan ignores the fundamental tenets of sovereignty. As Dr. Gebremariam argues in The Inviolable Red Line, the sovereignty of a nation is not a variable subject to the economic appetites of its neighbors, but a sacrosanct principle that cannot be bartered for a false sense of regional stability (Gebremariam 2025).

The Myth of “Existential Necessity” vs. Sovereign Rights

The central premise of Gen. Tsadkan’s article is that Ethiopia’s status as a landlocked nation with a population of 130 million constitutes an “existential crisis” that justifies a revision of the regional status quo (Gebretensae 2025). This argument attempts to elevate economic inconvenience to the level of a natural right to annex or control sovereign territory.

This narrative is legally and historically bankrupt. As detailed by Dr. Gebremariam in The Inviolable Red Line, the borders of the Horn of Africa are not fluid concepts open to renegotiation based on population growth. International law does not grant a state the right to violate a neighbor's territorial integrity simply because it feels “choked.” Ethiopia’s landlocked status is a legal reality, not an injustice to be corrected by seizing the coast. The “need” for a port does not override the sovereign rights of the coastal state (Gebremariam 2025).

Furthermore, the General’s invocation of the “military option” as a manifestation of “national determination” is a thinly veiled threat of aggression (Gebretensae 2025). It reflects a mindset that views international boundaries as obstacles to be overcome by force rather than lines to be respected.

Weaponizing Demography and Distortion of History

Perhaps the most provocative aspect of Gen. Tsadkan’s article is its treatment of the Afar population and the Assab region. The author suggests that because the Afar people reside on both sides of the border, and because the coastal strip is “sparsely populated,” it is naturally an “extension of mainland Ethiopia” (Gebretensae 2025).

This is a textbook example of revisionist history used to fuel expansionism. As elucidated in Asab: The Cradle of Eritrea, Dr. Gebremariam establishes that Assab is historically, culturally, and legally an integral part of Eritrea. The colonial borders, which were reaffirmed by the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1964 and legally settled by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC), are final. To suggest that the demographic overlap of the Afar people provides a pretext for Ethiopian claims over the “Denkelia zone” is to invite chaos across the entire African continent, where ethnic groups frequently span borders (Gebremariam 2025). This rhetoric is not about “equilibrium”; it is a recycling of the “Greater Ethiopia” ambition that has plagued the region for decades.

Projection: Scapegoating Eritrea to Mask Ethiopian Fragility

The article characterizes Eritrea as a “fragile,” “autocratic garrison state” that lacks shock absorption capacity. This portrayal is a strategic diversion - a classic case of psychological projection. As analyzed by Dr. Gebremariam in Scapegoating Eritrea and Weaponizing Ignorance, it is a common tactic of Ethiopian elites to externalize their internal failures by demonizing Eritrea.

The reality is that Ethiopia is the entity suffering from profound structural fragility. While Gen. Tsadkan claims Ethiopia is a “modernizing” anchor, Dr. Gebremariam’s The Prosperity Façade exposes the hollowness of this claim. Plagued by unmanageable debt, ethnic fragmentation, and internal insurgencies (from Fano to the OLA), Ethiopia is far from the stabilizing force the article pretends it to be (Gebremariam 2025). The General’s attempt to paint Eritrea as the source of instability is a calculated move to distract the international community from Ethiopia’s own crumbling social contract and to justify foreign intervention against Eritrea.

The False Promise of an Ethiopian “Anchor”

The article argues that an “empowered” Ethiopia with sea access would act as a “counterbalance” and a reliable partner for global powers (Gebretensae 2025). This assumes that Ethiopian hegemony is benevolent, a premise contradicted by historical fact.

As outlined in The Geopolitical Quagmire, Dr. Gebremariam notes that the region’s instability has often been exacerbated by external powers using local proxies to secure the Red Sea. By inviting further “international competition” and positioning itself as the preferred partner for “Great Power” projection, Ethiopia is not proposing a solution but rather volunteering to be the primary vessel for foreign interference in the Horn (Gebremariam 2025).

Moreover, the historical record, as discussed in Eritrean Sacrifice for Ethiopian Stability, demonstrates that it is Eritrea that has often acted as the stabilizer, having sacrificed significantly to ensure a stable neighborhood, only to be betrayed by expansionist ambitions from Addis Ababa (Gebremariam 2025). A truly stable region requires Ethiopia to respect its neighbors, not subsume them.

In a nutshell, General Tsadkan’s “The Red Sea Arena” is not a roadmap for peace; it is a manifesto for hegemony. It attempts to normalize the violation of Eritrean sovereignty by framing Ethiopian expansionism as a “global necessity.”

A true “new equilibrium” will not be achieved by appeasing Ethiopian expansionism or by creating “political arrangements” that grant Ethiopia rights over Eritrean territory. It will be achieved only when Ethiopia abandons its zero-sum mentality, respects the Inviolable Red Line of established borders, and focuses on solving its internal Prosperity Façade rather than seeking to export its crisis to the Red Sea coast. The “existential” threat to Ethiopia is not its lack of a port, but its refusal to live within its legal borders as a peaceful neighbor.

References

Read in PDF Here.

ህዝባዊ ስትራተጂ ንምውሓስ ሉዑላውነት ኤርትራ፡ ውህደት ደላዪ ፍትሕን ዓለም ለኻዊ ትካላትን፡ ንምክልኻል እውጅ ወራር ኢትዮጵያ ኣብ ልዕሊ ኤርትራ። ህዝባዊ ሰሚናር ውድብ ሓድነት ኤርትራውያን (ውሓኤ)፡ 16 ነሓሰ 2025

See also: The journey of Nationhood of the State-of-Eritrea (ታሪኻዊ ጉዕዞ ሃገርነት ኤርትራ፡), Seminar by Dr. Gebre Gebremariam ኣስተምህሮ ብ`ዶር. ገብረ ገብረማሪያም

ልዑላውነት ኤርትራን ሕቶ ኣፍደገ-ባሕሪ ኢትዮጵያን፡
Eritrean Sovereignty and Ethiopia's quest for Red-Sea Access.

Part-1/5 (English): Part-2/5 (Tigrinya): Part-3/5 (Amharic): Part-4/5 (Arabic): Part-5/5 (Q and A ሕቶን መልስን):

- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - ጽማቝ ትሕዝቶን ለበዋን - የጥናት ወረቀት ረቂቅ - الملخص التنفیذي
Read in PDF Here.

- To read the entire report of the Red Sea Task Force, please click Here.
OR
use this link.

የኢትዮጵያ የባሕር በር ጥያቄ እና የኤርትራ ሉዓላዊነት በዓለም አቀፍ ሕግ እይታ | Eritrean Sovereignty, Int'l Law & Access to Sea.

#ኢትዮጵያ የባሕር በር እንዴት ማግኘት ትችላለች? #የቅኝ ግዛት ውሎች ኢትዮጵያ ተገዳ ነው የፈረመችው?

ATV: ሓባራዊ ዘተ ምሁራን ኤርትራውያንን ኢትዮጵያውያንን - 1ይ ክፋል / ምንጪ Menalesh Meti

ATV: የኢትዮጵያዉያንና ኤርትራዉያን የጋራ ዉይይት - 2ይ ክፋል - ምንጪ Menalesh Meti

See also more articles from Dr Gebre Gebremariam:

Global Policy / መትከላት

Snitna: Code of Conduct — መርበብ ሓበሬታና ዝምራሓሉ መትከላት

ስኒትና.ኮም (www.snitna.com)፡ ነቲ ኣብ 1936 ዝወጸ መትከላት ጋዜጠኝነት (UK and Irish journalism): ከምኡውን ንመትከላት ሃገራዊ ማሕበር ጋዜጠኛታት (National Union of Journalists (NUJ)፡ የኽብር። Snitna Policy Code Asset Logo ብተወሳኺ፡ ነቲ ኣብ ዩቱብ ቻነል ዝወጽእ ሓበሬታ፡ ንመትከላት ማሕበራዊ መትከላት ዩቱብ (YouTube Community Guidelines)፡ እናኽበረ የውጽእ። ስኒትና፡ ብዝከኣሎ መጠን፡ ነዚ መትከላት'ዚን ናይ ሃገርና ኤርትራን ህዝባን ክዉንነትን ምርኩስ ገይሩ፡ ኣብ መርበብ ሓበሬታኡ ስኒትና (www.snitna.com) ክውጽእ ዝግብኦ ሓበሬታ እናመመየ ከውጽእ ይህቅንን ይጽዕርን። እዚ ስራሕዚ ምሉእ ዓወት ንክህልዎ ድማ ብዓቢኡ፡ ግቡእ ኣጠቓቕማ ተሳተፍቲን ምትሕብባርን ምስዝህሉ ኢዩ። ስለዚ፡ ነዚ መትከላት ዚ ንምኽባር ንኹሉ ተገልጋላይ'ዚ መርበብዚ ንጽውዕ። ዝኾነ ሃሳዪ ተርእዮታት ምስዘጋጥሙ፡ ቅሬታኹም ወይ ርእይቶኹም ብኢመይል ኣድራሻና ኣቢልኩም ክትልእኩልና ንላቦ። Read more

See also Related / ምስዚ ዝተኣሳሰር ሓበሬታ፡-

THE FALLACY OF “EQUILIBRIUM”: Unmasking the Expansionist Agenda Behind Ethiopia’s Quest for the Red Sea

Rebuttal to the article “The Red Sea Arena: Imperative for a New Regional Equilibrium” by General Tsadkan Gebretensae

By Dr. Gebre Gebremariam

Snitna: Code of Conduct — መርበብ ሓበሬታና ዝምራሓሉ መትከላት

THE FALLACY OF “EQUILIBRIUM”:
Unmasking the Expansionist Agenda Behind Ethiopia’s Quest for the Red Sea